SS Futures Rebound from Lows with Limited Boost Effect, Stainless Steel Spot Cargo Remains at Low Levels [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

SMM October 22 news, SS futures showed a further strengthening and rising pattern. SS followed the upward trend of ferrous metals, breaking out of the previous weakness and further climbing during the day, stabilizing above 12,700 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures have been rising for several consecutive days, boosting market confidence and increasing inquiries, spot offers and actual transactions have not actually recovered. With falling nickel pig iron prices and downstream buyers remaining cautious in purchases, traders' offers continue to operate at low levels.

Futures side, the most-traded contract 2512 held up well. At 10:30 am, SS2511 was quoted at 12,710 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 310-610 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,000 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coil was 13,000 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 13,000 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was 25,500 yuan/mt, and 25,500 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was 24,950 yuan/mt in both locations; the price for cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.

Despite the traditional peak consumption season of "September-October peak season," stainless steel planned production for October further increased and is expected to approach 3.45 million mt again. However, the recovery in end-use demand has not met expectations, and market purchase transactions remain sluggish, leading to an end to the previous destocking trend in stainless steel inventory. Social inventory rose significantly during the week, reaching 950,000 mt. Cost side, affected by the weak stainless steel market, high-grade NPI prices pulled back due to traders' lack of confidence and increased willingness to sell. The previous tight supply situation for high-carbon ferrochrome has eased, and with ferrochrome producers still maintaining good profit margins, prices have loosened at high levels. Currently, the stainless steel spot market is still affected by macro factors and futures price fluctuations driven by capital flows. The China-US trade friction, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and policy guidance from the domestic Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee all create significant uncertainty for the market. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in the macro environment and stainless steel demand conditions.